The reputation of Carnival Cruise Line has been tarnished by recent high-profile reports of disasters at sea. Between engine fires, power outages, and backed up sewage, many cruisers are now wondering if it’s safe to take a Carnival Cruise. But have these reports been blown out of proportion, and how likely is it that you’d end up on a disabled ship? Should you be afraid to cruise on Carnival?

Carnival Triumph Disaster

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A Carnival Cruise turned to disaster in February 2013 when an engine room fire caused a power outage on the Carnival Triumph. The ship was stranded in the Gulf of Mexico for days, drifting with the current, while some of the 4200 people on board hung bedsheets outside their balconies with messages like “help us” and “SOS” written on them.

The ship was towed for five days back to the dock in Alabama, arriving three days late. Meanwhile, it was reported that passengers endured such horrors as sewage running down the hallways, extremely delayed mealtimes, flooded rooms and hot, blackout conditions with no lights and no air conditioning.

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Whether that was the reality aboard the Triumph is uncertain. One passenger recorded a 9 minute video tour during the “disaster” which shows many areas of the ship that appear to be in normal condition, with working lights, people eating at tables, and apparently regular operations.

Cheryl-Lee Fichera Mitchell posted this on Carnival’s website via Facebook:

“As a passenger who was on this cruise, I can tell you things have been blown out of proportion. Yes, there were some inconveniences, but in general, the crew did a phenomenal job of managing a very difficult situation. There were a lot of people who simply made the best out of a bad situation and there were a lot of people who actively searched for every negative photo op they could find. I didn’t see the majority of the stuff that has been reported in the news, probably because I didn’t go looking for it. Kudos to all the crew members for working tirelessly to bring us home with a smile on your face even though you had the worst living conditions of all those on-board! Even after this experience, I will still sail with Carnival.”

Still, reports that human waste tipped out of toilets and sloshed across floors as the ship listed to the side are not appealing. Some passengers of the Triumph have filed a class-action lawsuit against Carnival, but travel experts don’t expect they will win.

Conditions Aboard the Carnival Cruise Ship Triumph
Carnival was quick to issue public apologies and refunds. Each passenger was given a full refund for the trip, a free flight home, plus a credit for another cruise and an extra $500.

More Trouble on the Carnival Dream

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After the problems aboard the Triumph, the media was quick to report more power trouble on another Carnival ship, the Dream. In March of 2013 a diesel generator on the Dream malfunctioned. This time the ship was at port in St Maarten, not out at sea.

One news article was titled “Carnival Dream turns to nightmare.” Clever, and a bit obvious, but possibly not warranted.

While the Dream was docked, passengers started reporting overflowing toilets and power outages. The cause was investigated and tests of a generator revealed that it was malfunctioning. One passenger reported, “There’s human waste all over the floor in some of the bathrooms and they’re overflowing.”

However, other passengers seemed not to notice much of an issue. One said that the power and water systems were only interrupted for 10-20 minutes one evening and said, “The plumbing is fine. The food is fine. Everything is fine.”

Another said, “We have toilets. We have water. It’s no different than a regular day at sea.”

Carnival arranged flights home for all passengers via chartered and regularly scheduled flights, and gave them a refund for the remaining days of the trip and half off a future cruise.

On its Facebook page, Carnival posted: “At no time did the ship lose power but there were periodic interruptions to elevators and toilets for a few hours last night. At this time all hotel systems are functioning normally.”

The Sinking of the Costa Concordia

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Carnival is owned by the Carnival Corporation, which also owns Costa Crociere Cruises. Costa Crociere operates the Costa Concordia, the ship that ran aground off the coast of Italy in January 2012. It tipped on its side and sunk about halfway, killing 32 people and leading to the captain being charged with manslaughter.

This disaster at sea appears to be the fault of the captain. From Wikipedia:

The ship, carrying 4,252 people from all over the world, was on the first leg of a cruise around the Mediterranean Sea, starting from Civitavecchia in Lazio, when she hit a reef during an unofficial near-shore salute to the local islanders. To perform this manoeuvre, Captain Francesco Schettino had deviated from the ship’s computer-programmed route, claiming that he was familiar with the local seabed. The collision with the reef could be heard onboard and caused a temporary power blackout when water flooded the engine room. The captain, having lost control of the ship, did nothing to contact the nearby harbour for help but tried to resume the original course, before a U-turn back to Giglio. In the end, he had to order evacuation when the ship grounded after an hour of listing and partly drifting. Meanwhile, the harbour authorities had been alerted by worried passengers, and vessels were sent to the rescue. During a six-hour evacuation, most passengers were brought ashore. The search for missing people continued for several months, with all but two being accounted for.

An Italian court has convicted five Costa Crociere employees of manslaughter and negligence. The crisis coordinator for the company has been sentenced to two years and ten months, and the ship’s hotel director was sentenced to two years and six months. The trial of Costa Concordia captain was held separately and he was charged with manslaughter.

Making Changes

As a travel agency that deals with thousands of cruises per year, our suspicion is that Carnival was pushing its ships too hard without enough regular maintenance. Cruise ships operate almost constantly year round, embarking on trip after trip with as little downtime as possible. When a ship is out of service for scheduled maintenance, it’s not available for cruises, which is of course a huge loss of income for the cruise line.

Was the lack of maintenance a result of poor leadership? Carnival CEO Micky Arison was the son of the company founder and held the position since 1979. He grew Carnival from a small company of three ships to a multi-million dollar company. After so much bad press leading to fewer cruise bookings, Carnival replaced him with Arnold Donald. Donald was a Carnival board member for 12 years and founder of the company that created Equal sweetener.

The new Carnival CEO spoke to CBS News in this interview:

Even with waning passenger faith in the brand and so much bad press, Carnival also announced second quarter profits of $41 million. This was due to the company discounting fares in the hope of bringing passengers back, as well as a campaign to lower fuel costs.

Carnival is now taking steps to revamp its aging fleet. They’ve announced plans to spend $300 million to upgrade every ship and will be reviewing all safety and maintenance regulations.

How Likely Are You to Experience a Carnival Cruise Disaster?

All of this had us wondering how likely it is to actually experience a cruise disaster aboard a Carnival ship, so we crunched some numbers.

Carnival’s website currently advertizes a fleet of 23 ships. In our long experience as a cruise agency, we know that most Carnival cruise ships run on average one trip per week, all year long. That adds up to 1196 sailings per year.

If you figure there will be three Carnival incidents in a year (which is unlikely as it is), that means you have a 0.0025% chance to experience a disaster, or a 1 in 399 chance.

Compare that to your lifetime risk of other, more common, issues:

Heart disease1 in 5
Cancer1 in 7
Stroke 1 in 24
Hospital infections 1 in 38
Flu1 in 63
Car accidents1 in 84
Suicide1 in 119
Accidental poisoning1 in 193
Falls1 in 218
Carnival cruise disaster1 in 399

In our research we also found out that while most fires aboard cruise ships go unreported, they are extremely unlikely. At a congressional hearing, cruise expert and author Ross Klein said that fires broke out in 79 cruise ships from 1990 to 2011. That’s 79 fires in a span of 21 years, or less than 4 per year across ALL cruise ships in existence.

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Our Recommendations for Choosing a Cruise Line

Since you have such an extremely low chance of being on a cruise ship that catches on fire or loses power, we think it’s a better idea to consider other things when choosing a cruise line:

Destination

Your cruise’s destination is probably the biggest thing you’ll be considering when planning your cruise vacation. Carnival is best known for cruises to the Caribbean and Bahamas, but if you want to go to Europe, Alaska, or Asia, other cruise lines would be better choices.

Price

Carnival is a great choice if you’re looking for a bargain. They operate a lot of cruises of shorter durations (3-5) that run for lower prices than week-long trips, and in general, their cruises are often at the low end of the spectrum of cruise prices.

Amenities and Atmosphere

Carnival’s marketing focuses on the fun atmosphere aboard their ships. A Carnival cruise is a casual, fun, and affordable family-friendly vacation. If that’s what you’re looking for, it will suit you well. If you’re looking for a luxury voyage to an exotic destination, choose a cruise line that specializes in that kind of experience.

Should You Avoid Carnival?

So, should you be afraid to cruise on Carnival? The numbers say you should be less afraid of a Carnival cruise than flying or driving. Always take news reports with a grain of salt – they are crafted to get the highest ratings possible.